The analysis

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The analysis

A Pincer Movement

An excerpt

As he returned from his unformal meetiong with the

prime minister, on his way to his office; the head of the Israeli national intelligence service was bothered, and somewhat surprised by the prime minister’s pesimistic assumptions.

I can’t understand why he takes so seriously the Astana peace talks? Does he really believe that some positive results will come out of it, and the Syrian Allevite regime would be free to send some of its forces or several Hezbollah units to the Golan Heights, to warm up our border with ambuscades and some other kind of hostilities? I don’t think that I didn’t convince him, he simply prefares to be on the safe side. Yes that must be it. He concluded as he entered his secretary’s ante room on his way to his office.

‘They’re already inside waiting for you some ten minutes already.’ She updated him with a forced welcome smile.

‘Good afternoon everyone,’ he muttered and crossed the short distance to his desk, and took his seat.

‘I’ve just met the prime minister and heard his views on the Astana peace talk, which its results might be our next headache. I’ve tried my best to explain to him my personal estimation, but he rejectied it and in a way he’s right… He doesn’t want to take any chances, he prefares to be ready to the worst.’ He made a short pause and looked over all his assembled departments’ head and their deputies.

‘So we’re expected to analyze what could be the Astana talks worst sitation from our point of view, and that’s our main task for the time being, to analyze carefully every aspect of the Astana talks possible results in reference to our national interests.’ He made another short pause and turned to Daniel the intelligence department’s head, as his department main responsibility is research and analysis.

‘What do we know on the talks in the Kasahch capital Dan?’

‘It’s a show off convention meanwhile, and we can’t know right now if anything will come our of it. But let’s start with its top participants: the number one high ranked personality is Aleksander Lavrentiev, the Russian president’s special envoy to Syria; he’s the one that orgnizes daily press conferences with the most optimistic announcements, the two other most important participants are the Turkish and Iranian representatives. Two more participants attend the talks as observers, the US embassador to Kazakhstan and a certain Staffan de Mistura as representing the UN secretary general. There’re of course the two rival parties, the representives of the Assad regime and representatives of the Syrian rebels. In both rival parties military high ranked officers are included, except the political representatives. What interests us and it’s very significant is the fact that the Syrian rebels have parted with the Al-Nusra Front, which is defined by the two rival sides as terrorists...’

‘Well, well who would have believed it, do the Russians really think that the Sunnie rebels will reconcile with the Alevite regime that buthchered them?’ The intelligence service head called out with a short laugh.

‘That’s why I termed it as a show off convention Gad.’ the intelligence department head answered him. ‘Let’s suppose that the talks will end up with an agreement to devide Syria between the two sides, and they’ll fight togather the terrorists; which are in this case the Al-Nusra Front and ISIS… That would be the Assad’s regime best chance to crush the rebels, who are defined as terrotists too and are still mixed with the Al-Nusra Front.’

‘And that would be accomplished with the support of the Russians air force.’ One of the department heads joined in enthusiastically.

‘Alright calm down please,’ the service head hastened to take the reigns into his hands.

‘So this could be one of the options, a sophisticated trap laid by the Russians and their Iranian allies, to crush the rebels once and for all… But I don’t believe that the rebels will fall into that trap, and the Turks will surely be on their side and will support their case.’

‘And there’re the Syrian Kurds who’ll turn to the Americans...’ Another participant called out, and caused all the rest to add their comments in disorder.

‘Cut it off,’ the service head ordered them with a raised voice. ‘Okay Dan enough is enough, give us your experts’ conclusive analysis.’

‘There’re of course two more irrelevant options Gad, but to our estimation the talks will end up in a couple of weeks, either with a temporary cease fire agreement that will last a few days, or with a renewed break out of hostilities on the spot.’

‘Okay see to put in writing Dan plus some of the irrelevnat options for comparison sake, and I’ll present it to the prime minister in the next cabinet meeting.’

Copyright © Haim Kadman 2017. All rights reserved.