The Dimensions of the Problem

A pseudo-historical attempt at "hard" science-fiction.

Dr. Solomon Paulos used the term “unmanageable” in his official report on the asteroid's mass to the U.S. Cabinet Secretaries - a show of written restraint that some atop the field would label “the understatement of the eon” once declassified:

 

... but most critically, our severe lack of means to project large amounts of energy to, and beyond, low-Earth orbit makes the situation unmanageable with the current ballistic technology. Given the dimensions of the problem, it seems likely that any successful deflection scheme will require extensive refinements not only of our aerospace technologies, but of our understanding of Physics and Mathematics as a whole.  [Paulos S., 1961]

 

Its mass was usually printed in abbreviated form as 6x10¹⁵ kilograms, but in long form, the fifteen zeros in 6,000,000,000,000,000 (six quadrillion) can serve emphatically (yet still inadequately) as a visual meter of the size of the dilemma. As a certain NASA Deputy-Administrator once noted, "It takes only a modest number of commas and zeros before a figure becomes totally unimaginable - meaningless to the average person.”

Meaningless or not, the average person would like to imagine anyway, and there was no shortage of sound bites, at once charming and sobering, to aid him. "It could kill the dinosaurs twice," got the sense across to most, however more precise attempts to quantify the danger often remained well beyond the mind's reach. "Six million Hiroshima bombs" is only slightly less incomprehensible than six quadrillion kilograms, but a Sunday headline comparing its speed to a .22 caliber bullet struck chords in most readers. The absurd reality though was that for every mile a bullet traveled, the rock traveled sixty, and so for a while it seemed the press had a topic that neither tabloid nor Times could quite sensationalize.

Such headlines, though, do not appear until rather late in the history of Nero �" its existence being Man’s best kept secret until the 2030 declassification event�" but a fastidious preservation of records reveals at least one early attempt at imagination: when Dr. Paulos himself was asked to picture a likely scene of the asteroid’s approach he confidently assured the colleague, “It would be brief”- an assurance he would clarify via letter:

 

Under ideal conditions - say at twilight near the equator - you might see, at the appointed place in the sky, something like a star appear suddenly in the dusk. But by the time you focus your binoculars, squint your eyes, and say 'there!', it will have hit us.

Author's Note

I've done quite a bit of research to make sure the statistics above are realistic. In fact the asteroid above is meant to resemble the real-life asteroid 433 Eros.

Reviews

[Tom McRoberts]

'Hard science fiction' it certainly is, but it doesn't discriminate the less academic (me, in this case) and remains enjoyable and witty--I really liked the 'kill the dinosaurs twice' line. You've got a good grasp of the form and genre, I'd love to see you do a longer piece!

[Evariste Galois]

I appreciate the feedback Tom. This is sitting at around 350 words but the plan is to write a series of related episodes like this at ~1500 words each. I just need to find find the right blend of technical writing and story-telling so it sounds convincing without being "uppity". Thanks again for reading.

[Tom McRoberts]

Are you a fan of Arthur C. Clarke? He did it better than most. I think the trick is to maintain a sense of mystical awe in spite of our ability to break elements down into figures and statistics, which--if it comes as any consolation--I think you've already done quite well

[Evariste Galois]

I've seen 2001 many times but never read the novelization, nor any other works of his. I have a hard time reading most SciFi, mainly because I find it cheesy. I'm finishing up my 3rd year of university Mathematics work, and the more I learn about science the less I can tolerate fictional abuses of it. Philip K Dick is the one author in the genre I've enjoyed in a while but I might give Clarke a try now.

As always, I appreciate the help but can you explain a bit what you mean by "a sense of mystical awe in spite of our ability to break elements down into figures and statistics"?

[Tom McRoberts]

I guess what I was getting at is that although hard sci-fi is less silly and more scientifically grounded than its counterpart, it is just as--if not more--earnest in its fascination and enthusiasm for the possibilities it presents. Good writing in this genre isn't praised for accuracy, but for its ability to make the reader genuinely marvelled by the fantastical nature of our own universe.
'The Songs of Distant Earth' is my favourite by Clarke, well worth a read. Philip K. Dick is actually my favourite author of any genre.