THE GREAT ENERGY TRANSFORMATIONA Chapter by peppino ruggeriThe fossil fuels
era started around 1900 and is projected to end in 2025. This relatively short
period can be divided into three phases: the dominance of coal, the ascent of
hydrocarbons and electricity, and the proliferation of energy sources. The Dominance
of Coal Within the fossil
fuel era, the ascent of coal, which started in the 19th century and
was consolidated in the first half of the following century, represents the
main component of the energy transformation. Coal did not simply accommodate
the increasing demand for energy. It replaced an energy mix that had fueled the
globe for millennia. Its dominance resulted not just from its natural
advantages as an energy source, but its capacity to be used in many
applications from heavy industry, to the heating of buildings, to
transportation, and later electricity generation. Its ascent also benefited
from limited technological requirements for its use. In heating and metallurgy,
its use involved modifications of existing equipment. Similarly, in rail and in
marine transportation, and in electricity generation, technological changes
were confined to modifications to the generation of steam. The only major
technological advancement specific to the use of coal was the steam engine. In
the case of electricity, the new technology was directed at hydro power and its
application was easily extended to coal-generated steam. During the phase
of coal dominance, two other fossil-fuel energy source began to make inroads
into the energy mix: oil and natural gas. Still, coal maintained its leading
role for more than half of a century. The change in the energy mix from 1900 is
shown in table II-1. In both years, the energy mix contained two categories of
energy sources: fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and renewables
(fuelwood, fodder, hydro power). Even in 1960, the contribution of nuclear
power was negligible. In the first phase of the Great Energy Transformation, we
notice the speedy ascent of fossil fuels whose share in the energy mix rose
from slightly more than half in 1900 to more than three-quarters in 1960, while
the share of renewable energy sources dropped to one-fifth. We also notice a
deepening split among regions in response to different rates of
industrialization. The share of fossil fuels in 1960 was 84 percent in Oceania
and ranged between 91 and 93 percent Europe and North America. Asia and Africa
were still in the transition period. In 1960, 28 percent of the population
(Europe, North America, and Oceania) consumed 72 percent of the global energy. The increase in
population combined with economic growth stimulated global energy consumption
which rose by a factor of 3.6 over the 60 years from 1900 to 1960, equivalent
to an average annual growth rate of 2.16 percent. Population growth and
increases in per capita energy consumption contributed similar shares to the
growth of energy consumption as the former rose at an average annual rate of
1.12 percent and the latter 1.03 percent. The increase in the global per capita
energy consumption from 28.8 GJ to 53.2 was not uniform. Only three regions had
percentage point increases larger than the average of 24.4 points. The largest
increase was recorded in North America where it was five times the average
global increase. The 1950s ushered
in the popularization of conspicuous consumption, particularly in the United
States. In 1950, the average American house measured less than 1,000 square
feet, equivalent to 282 square feet of space per household member, and
mass-produced Levitt houses offered only 750 square feet of living space. Half
of residential dwellings had central heating, 24 percent had no indoor flush,
and 27 percent had no indoor bathing facilities.1 By 1960, the
average house size had risen to 1,200 square feet while the average household
size had fallen from 3,51 to 3.33, implying an increase in the square footage per
household member to 360. From 1900 to 1950, the number of persons per
automobile in the United States plummeted from 9.512 to 3.8, which means that
in 1950 the average US household owned 0.92 percent of a car and the average
person 0.28 of a car. Ten years later, 21 percent of the population owned 2+
cars, and the number of persons per car dropped to 2.9.2 Table II-1. Energy
Consumption Indicators, 1900 and 1960 Region 1900 1960
GJ/P Share GJ/P Share Change in Ren. Fossil Ren. Fossil GJ/P
W. Europe 63.1 13.4 86.6 92.6 9.3 90.6 29.5 E. Europe 26.4 51.6 48.4 94.9 8.0 92.0 68.5 N. America 150.4 30.7 69.3 273.5 7.2 92.8 123.1 L. America 14.8 81.7
18.3 30.5 40.3 59.7 15.7 Oceania 97.6 72.5
27.5 107.3 16.1 83.9 9.7 Asia 10.3 93.6 6.4 21.0 51.4 48.6 10.7 Middle East
9.4 97.4 2.6 29.3 33.0 67.0 19.9 Africa 14.8 97.9 2.1 24.9 52.3 47.7 10.1 World
28.8 44.3 55.7
53.2 20.9 79.0 24.4 Source: Author’s Calculations Base on Malanima (2022),
Tables A.1, A.4, A.6-13.
The percentage distribution of fossil fuels by type
changed dramatically from 1900 to 1960. At the turn of the century, fossil
fuels were almost entirely in the form of coal. With the exception of Eastern
Europe, the share of coal ranged between 93 and 100 percent. Over the next 60
years the global share of coal dropped by nearly half, falling below 50 percent
in 1960. Its share was still higher than each of the other two fossil fuels,
but only 12 percentage points higher than the share of oil. The change in the
fossil fuel mix was not uniform among regions. Coal remained dominant in
Europe, Asia, and Africa, but became marginalized in the Americas and the
Middle East.
Table II-2. Percentage Distribution of Fossil Fuels by
Type and Region: 1900 and 1960 Region
1900 1960
Coal Oil NG Coal Oil NG
W. Europe 99.0 1.0 0 68.0 30.2 1.8 E. Europe 81.1 18.9 0 69.6 21.7 8.7 N. America 93.6 3.1 3.3 23.3 47.9 28.8 L.
America 98.7 1.3 0 8.6 77.2 14.2 Oceania 98.9 1.1 0 55.4 44.3 0.3 Asia 93.1 6.9 0 75.9 23.1 1.0 Middle
East 100.0 0 0 11.5 83.0 5.5 Africa 100.0 0 0 68.3 31.3 0.4 World 95.2 3.6 1.2 48.7 37.1 14.2 Source: Author’s Calculations Base on Malanima (2022),
Tables A.4, A.6-13. The railroad did not just introduce an additional mode
of transportation. It changed the entire economic structure of most of the
world. While coal use in the metallurgical sector facilitated the production of
iron and steel, the demand for locomotives and boilers transformed this sector
into an engine of growth. The railroad was also instrumental in the creation of
new towns along the way and a boom in construction. It created large number of
jobs, strengthened connections between cities, and stimulated trade. The large
financial commitments required by railroads also led to the expansion of the
financial system which laid the foundations of modern finance, and created a
broad class of wealthy families, barons of transport, industry, and finance. Nowhere in the world did the railroad have a greater
impact than in North America. The Trans-Canada railroad, built in the later
part of the 19th century, served as the glue for the newly formed
country. In the United States, it helped open the West, transforming the
country into an economic juggernaut. Coal did not just transform America, it
eventually changed the world. Electricity did not play a major role in the energy
mix during the coal dominance phase of the Great Energy Transition. While all
the research and development work regarding electricity was performed in the 18th
century, by 1900 only 2.6 TWh of electricity were generated through hydropower
and coal. The growth of electricity generation accelerated in the following
decades and the electricity generated jumped from 293 TWh in 1940 to 2,300 TWh
in 1960. Still, by 1960 electricity accounted for less than 10 percent of
energy consumption. During this period, coal was the dominant fuel for
electricity generation, accounting for 58 percent in 1940 and 54 percent in
1960. Most of the rest was generated by hydropower with shares of 39 percent in
1940 and 30 percent in 1960.4 When we include the utilization of coal in heavy
industry, marine transportation, and heating of residential dwellings and
non-residential buildings, we realize how
extensive and transformational was the role of coal not just in terms of
the energy mix and the economic structure, but also on living standards and
social development. In the absence of
coal, the transformation of the world economy from an agricultural base to industrialization,
and the introduction of hydrocarbons and electricity would have appeared much
later, if at all. The Ascent of Hydrocarbons and Electricity The second phase
of the Great Energy Transformation is characterized by the ascent of a subset
of fossil fuels called hydrocarbons, basically crude oil and natural gas. While
they began to play an increasingly significant role in the energy throughout
the coal-dominance phase, their combined power was consolidated in the second
half of the 20th century. Crude oil. As in the case of coal, oil seeping at the surface was
used in small amounts in ancient times at various locations. Digging wells for
commercial purposes began only in the mid-1800s in the South Caucasus (1846),
Poland (1854), and Canada (1858). The first modern well using steam engines for
pumping was drilled in Titusville, Pennsylvania, the 27th of August
1859 by Colonel Edwin Blake.5 The ascent of oil was aided by technological advances in oil exploration and
drilling and in refining. The most important early well-drilling invention was
the rotary drill, which was invented in the 1880s and used a rotary drill to
dig a well. A major improvement in drilling came in 1929 when H. John Eastman
introduced controlled direction drilling. Further improvements were made in
1941 by Russian Alexander Grigoryan who helped with the first horizontal well
drilled in Azerbaijan. Oil companies soon realized that vast oil deposits
existed below waters and began developing technology for offshore drilling. The
first offshore mobile drilling rig was built in 1954 and operated in 20 feet of
water. This was followed by semisubmersible drilling rigs in 1962. Because
drilling at great depths represented grave dangers to human workers,
remotely-operated vehicles (ROVs), originally developed by the military to
recover lost equipment, was modified for use on offshore drilling starting in
the 1970s. To recover oil from “tight” reservoirs, researchers developed
hydrolic fracturing (fracking). Known as early as the 1940s, this technology began
being used extensively in the latter part of the century. Another important
technological advance was the development of 3-D seismic imaging, a development
facilitated by the digital revolution. This is a process where special
equipment on the surface allows the creation of 3-D images from sound waves
sent deep into the earth. These images help engineers and geologists find the
location of oil deposits. Another digital technology �"
measurement-while-drilling-systems or MWD �" provides real-time information on
the status of the drilling operation and the capacity to change drilling
directions.6 Crude oil has two major advantages over coal. First,
it has greater energy density, it is easier to handle and to transport, it
requires less storage space, the combustion process is easier to control, and
it is more versatile in its uses. Second, because of its relatively lower
extraction costs, over time it created a cost advantage over coal. Yet, it took
a century before oil and its refined products acquired a dominant place in the
energy mix. The reason for this delay is oil’s inability to develop a strong
competitive advantage over coal in its existing applications. Lighting. In the early days of oil extraction, the use of
products refined from crude oil was largely confined to lighting and
lubrication. In 1853, a few years after Gesner produced kerosene from coal, a
Polish pharmacist named Ignacy Lucasieviz distilled kerosene from oil and used
it to light a lamp the he designed.7
The refining technology was unsophisticated and involved the production
of refined petroleum products through a simple distillation process where crude
oil was heated in a vessel and the resulting vapors were condensed. The demand for these products was quite
limited. Electricity
Generation. As mentioned
earlier, during the first half of the twentieth century, the dominant fuel used
in electricity generation was coal. Oil made substantial inroads in the 1950s
and 1960s, but its role soon subsided in response to the energy crises of the
1970s and the expanded use of natural gas. The share of oil in electricity
generation, which had reached a peak of 25 percent in the early 1970s, fell
rapidly, dropping to 11 percent in 1990, 8 percent in 2000, and 3 percent in
2019.11 Transportation. Oil had also a small impact on the existing two
major modes of transportation: rail and marine. Throughout the first half of
the 20th century, railroad transportation was dominated by steam
engines powered by coal. In the second half of that century, steam engines were
replaced by direct or indirect electricity. In Asia and Europe, the transition
was from coal to electricity. In the United States, the electrification was
indirect as diesel replaced coal, but diesel was used to generate electricity
to power an electric engine. The transition from coal to diesel was also slow
in the case of maritime transportation and the pace of the transition differed
among countries depending on the availability and the cost of coal. It took a
century from the drilling of the first oil wells to the replacement of the
coal-fired steam engines.12 What transformed
oil into a dominant component of the energy mix was the invention of
the internal combustion engine and the introduction of the first cars in the
late 1800s. Attempts at
developing internal combustion engines, where fuel combustion takes place
inside the engine instead of outside as in the case of steam engines,
intensified in the second half of the 19th century. Perhaps the most
influential inventor in this field was Karl Benz, a German engineer who in 1879
received a patent for his two-stroke engine and six years later built a
four-stroke engine that he placed in an automobile he had designed and
patented. In 1893 Rudolph Diesel,
another German engineer, was granted a patent for the first compressed charge
engine (diesel engine). By the beginning of the 20th century, car
manufacturers could be found in a variety of countries. Until 1913, when Henry
Ford built the first conveyor-belt assembly line in in his factory at Highland
Park, Michigan, a step that led to a substantial reduction in car prices,
automobiles were more of a novelty than a useful means of transportation. In
1900, the US had a population of 76 million people, but only 8,000 cars (one
car per 10,000 persons) and 144 miles of paved roads. By 1920 there were 87
cars per 1,000 persons and by 1950 there were 32 cars per 100 persons13 Worldwide
in 1950 there were 20 cars per 1,000 people. By 2018 the number of cars per
1,000 people had risen to 137 worldwide.14 Oil was also
instrumental in the introduction of an additional mode of transportation:
aviation. Aviation had its origins in the early 20th century and was
made possible by the internal combustion engine. The most famous inventors in
the field of aviation are the Wright brothers �" Wilbur and Orville, born in
Dayton, Ohio, the former in 1867 and the latter in 1871. Initially they focused
on wing design and in 1902 designed and built a successful glider. Then they
shifted their focus to internal combustion engines that could power such a
flying machine. Such an engine �" a four-cylinder engine with an aluminum block-
was built for them by Charles Taylor, a machinist employed in their bicycle
shop. The first flight of such a machine, named Wright Flyer I, took place on
the 17th of December, 1903 near Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. It flew
37 meters and lasted 12 seconds. Two
years later, their third glider, Wright Flyer III, had a successful flight of
38 km which lasted 39 minutes, and in 1908 mechanic Charles Furnas became the
first airplane passenger in history. The aviation
industry continued to expand in part with government financial assistance for
the development of war planes, but the main focus of research was on the
development of aircraft for passenger transportation. The first passenger
service was established in 1914 between St. Petersburg and Tampa, Florida. It
was followed in 1919 by the first transatlantic flight and in 1927 by first
solo transatlantic flight by Charles Lindbergh. The most
successful commercial aircraft was the Douglas DC-3 launched in 1936, the first operational jet aircraft was the
German Heinkel178 unveiled in 1939, and the first passenger jet aircraft was
the de Haviland Comet which entered service in 1953. After that, technological
development in aviation focused on building larger and more energy efficient
aircraft.15 Air traffic took off in the post-WW2 period. It expanded
from 310 million passengers a year in 1970 to 1 billion in 1990, 1.5 billion in
2000, 2.6 billion in 2021, and 4.5 billion in 2019.16 Non-Energy
Use. Crude oil is
also refined into a variety of non-energy uses such as asphalt/bitumen for
construction products and road paving; lubricants in transportation and
industry engines; waxes for candles, adhesives and coating, naphtha, white
spirit, turpentine, and kerosene for solvents, resins, foams, fibers, and
plastics; petroleum coke for industrial processes, and olefins (ethylene and
propylene) for a variety of petrochemical products. The consumption of oil
products for non-energy use has increased at a faster rate than total oil
consumption over the past fifty years. As a result, its share of total oil
consumption rose from 10.8 percent in 1971 to 16.6 percent in 2018.17 A
large share of non-energy oil consumption is related to transportation. For
example, more than half of synthetic rubber is used for tires and part of the
remaining non-energy use of oil �" lubricants and plastics for the production of
motor vehicles �" is related to transportation. Natural Gas.
Natural gas is a gaseous
hydrocarbon composed largely of methane and ethane. It is found in underground
reservoirs either dissolved in oil (wet gas) or in separate reservoirs (dry
gas). It may also be found among coal deposits. While it is a versatile energy
source which burns cleaner than coal and oil, the use of natural gas until the
middle of the twentieth century remained localized because of the technical
difficulties in transporting it over long distances. As late as the 1960s, wet
gas was more a nuisance than an energy source and was burned at the oil
well-head (flaring). Natural gas production and distribution benefited from two
technological advances. The first was the development of larger-diameter pipes
which allowed the construction of long-range pipelines able to transport large
quantities of natural gas over long distances. The second was the development
of liquefied natural gas (LNG), a process of cooling NG to -162 degrees
centigrade which reduced its volume by up to 600 times. Electricity. Over most of human history, energy was consumed in
its primary form. Fuelwood was burned directly for heating and cooking, coal
was used in the same manner with limited processing, water and wind power were
directly transformed into usable kinetic power, oil required some refining but
the refined product had the form of final consumption - whether it burned in a
furnace for space heating, in a boiler for steam generation, or in an internal
combustion engine -, and natural gas shares the same attributes. With
electricity we have the transformation of a primary power source �" material, as
in the case of traditional biomass and fossil fuels, more immaterial as in the
case of solar and wind power �" into a completely different secondary energy
form, the flow of electrons. This secondary energy form can perform all the
functions of the primary energy sources - heating, cooling, lighting, and
powering machines and vehicles �" and do it more efficiently. But it can do much
more, and uniquely. Because it can be generated by a variety of processes,
including chemical reactions, it can be generated even in small packages
(batteries) that can power portable machinery. Through the capacity of
rechargeable batteries, electricity use is separated from its generation, a
technical advance that greatly expands the versatility of this energy form and
makes possible applications that could have never been feasible from the use of
any other energy source. Because of its special capacities, electricity
generation expanded at a rapid rate from 1960 to 2000, growing by a factor of
6.7, 2.4 times faster than the growth of total primary energy consumption. Some summary
indicators of energy consumption are shown in table II-3. Global
energy use rose by a factor of 2.8 from 1960 to 2000, equivalent to an average
annual rate of 2.6 percent. More than two thirds of this increase resulted from
population growth of 1.8 percent. Per capita energy consumption rose by only
0.8 percent per year and contributed only 31 percent to the growth of global
energy consumption. These trends were associated with changes in the energy
mix. The most important change in this period was the introduction of a energy
source, nuclear power, which in 2000 accounted for 6.7 percent of total primary
energy consumption. However, this new energy sources simply replaced renewable
energy whose share declined from 21 percent to 12 percent. As a result, fossil
fuels continued to be the dominant energy source with a share of 81 percent,
two percentage points higher than in 1960. The biggest impact of nuclear power
occurred in Western Europe where its share of primary energy consumption
reached 16 percent in 2000 and led to decline of 15 percentage points in the
share of fossil fuels. Mode moderate nuclear power contributions to the energy
mix are noted for North America (8%) and Eastern Europe (6%) and are associated
with smaller declines in the share of fossil fuels, 7 and 3 percentage points,
respectively. In all other regions, the main change in the energy mix was the
expansion of the role of fossil fuels at the expense of traditional sources of
renewable energy. By 2000, the dominance of fossil fuels was established in all
regions of the globe.
Table II-3. Energy
Consumption Indicators, 2000 Region GJ/P Share
Renewables Fossil Nuclear
W. Europe
176.3 7.5 76.0 16.5 E. Europe
128.3 4.5 89.2 6.3 N. America
390.1 6.4 85.4 8.2 L.
America 50.1 20.4 78.6 1.0 Oceania 185.7 8.1 91.9 0 Asia 39.9 19.0 77.0 4.0 Middle
East 82.9 3.7 96.3 0 Africa 29.6 25.0 73.7 1.3 World 73.9 12.0 81.3 6.7 Source:
Author’s Calculations Base on Malanima (2022), Tables A.1, A.4, A.6-13.
Table II-4 shows the effects on the energy mix of
evolving industrialization, the expansion of the road transportation system,
and the widespread availability of natural gas. These developments led to
greater specialization of the three fossil fuels. In 1960, the contribution of
natural gas was modest and limited largely to the Americas. Oil was used partly
in electricity generation, but mainly in road transportation. Coal was a
multi-purpose energy source employed in heavy industry, electricity generation,
and even the heating of buildings. By 2000, coal consumption was confined to
electricity generation, oil used almost exclusively in transportation, and
natural gas became an important multi-purpose fuel with a share of fossil fuels
only 5 percentage points lower than coal’s.
Table II-4. Percentage Distribution of Fossil Fuels by
Type and Region: 1960 and 2000 Region
1960 2000
Coal Oil NG Coal Oil NG
W. Europe 68.0 30.2 1.8 18.7 52.1 29.2 E. Europe 69.6 21.7 8.7 27.6 23.0 49.4 N. America 23.3 47.9 28.8 25.7 45.2 29.1 L.
America 8.6 77.2 14.2 5.8 70.5 23.7 Oceania 55.4 44.3 0.3 42.5 37.8 19.7
Asia 75.9 23.1
1.0 52.4 38.2 9.4 Middle
East 11.5
83.0
5.5 8.4 60.2 31.4 Africa 68.3 31.3 0.4 36.1 42.7 21.2 World 48.7 37.1 14.2 31.2 43.3 25.5 Source: Author’s Calculations Base on Malanima (2022),
Tables A.1, A.4, A.6-13.
The
Proliferation of Energy Sources Malanima’s data
set does not go beyond 2000, therefore, for this section I used the information
contained in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2023. This means that a
direct comparison with the data for 2000 cannot be made especially since the
regional disaggregation is different. Still, I can present a consistent
comparison for global values by using IEA data for 2000 and 2022. From 2000 to 2022, global primary consumption
rose by 52 percent, equivalent to an average annual rate of 1.9 percent. This
growth rate is substantially lower than during the previous 60 years and its
decline is due largely to a lower growth rate of the population. The growth of
per capita energy consumption also decelerated during this period, but at a
slower pace. Twenty-two years
are not long enough to generate major changes in the energy mix. As shown in
Table II-5, fossil fuels remained dominant throughout, but their share declined
by 8 percentage points. The major change in the energy mix was a reduction of
10 percentage points in the share if oil offset by an 11 percentage points
increase in the share of renewables. Within fossil fuels, a portion of the fall
in the share of oil consumption was offset by small increases in the shares of
coal and natural gas. Table II-5. Shares
of Global Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2000 and 2022 Fuel
Shares
2000 2022 Coal
25.6 26.9 Oil
39.3 29.6 Natural Gas 22.7 22.9 Fossil Fuels 87.6 79.4 Nuclear Power 7.3 4.6 Renewables 5.1 16.0 Source: Author’s
calculations based on IEA, World Energy Outlook 2002, Table 2.1; IEA, World
Energy Outlook 2023, Table A.1a. Table II-6 provides
some details on the components of renewable energy in 2022. We notice that 40
percent of renewable energy was of the “old type” (traditional use biomass and
hydro power) and an additional 40 percent was bioenergy. The two energy sources
that are supposed to power the renewable energy revolution (wind and solar
power) accounted for only 15 percent of the total.
Table II-6.
Components of Renewable Energy, 2022 Components Share Traditional Use Biomass 23.8 Hydro
15.8 Modern Bioenergy 39.6 Wind and Solar 14.8 Other
6.0 Source: Author’s
calculations based on IEA, World Energy Outlook 2023, Table A.1a. Table II-7
presents some general information on the regional distribution of energy
consumption in 2022. Europe and North America continue to consume a share of
primary energy in excess of their population share, but their combined share is
shrinking for two reasons: their population is growing at a rate below the
world average, and its per capita energy consumption has begun to decline while
the global average is still rising. In 2022 the combination of Europe and North
America accounted for 31 percent of primary energy consumption although it
contained only 15 percent of the population (a ratio of 2.1). Excesses of
energy consumption shares over population shares are also found in Eurasia
(ratio of 2.2) and the Middle East (ratio of 1.8). The Asia Pacific region is
approaching the neutral point as its share of primary energy consumption is
only 9 percentage points lower than its share of the population. However,
within this region, both China and Japan have “excessive” shares of primary
energy consumption with ratios of 1.4 and 1.6, respectively. The two laggards
are South and Central America and Africa with ratios of 0.7 and 0.3,
respectively. North America remains the leading region in terms of per capita
energy consumption, followed by Eurasia and the Middle East. Per capita energy
consumption is slightly below the global average in Europe and is approaching
the global average in the Asia Pacific region. The comparison between the Asia
Pacific region and Africa is a particular interest. While in the former
population growth was associated with industrialization, which raised per
capita energy consumption, in the latter the lack of this association led to a
decline in per capita energy consumption.
Table II-7. Energy
Consumption Indicators by Region, 2022 Region
GJ/P Share
Population Energy
Consumption
Europe 78.2 8.7 12.7 N. America 226.7 6.4 18.6 (USA) (279.2) (4.2) (15.2) C. and S. America
55.0 6.6 4.7 Eurasia 174.8 3.0 6.7 (Russia) (237.8) (1.8) (5.5) Middle
East 137.4 3.3 5.9 Asia
Pacific 65.4 54.0 45.5 (China) (112.5) (17.9) (25.9) (India) (27.7) (19.1) (6.8) (Japan) (132.8) (1.6) (2.7) (SE Asia) (44.6) (8.5) (4.9) Africa 25.5 18.0 5.9 World 79.5 Source: Author’s Calculations Based on IEA, World
Energy Outlook 2023, Tables A.6 and B.1. The long-term trends in demographic, economic, and
energy consumption are summarized in table II-8. The first transition from
renewable energy to fossil fuels (1820 to 1900) was characterized by relatively
low growth rates of population, real GDP, real GDP per person, and primary
energy consumption. Because the process of industrialization was initially
confined geographically, it was focused on heavy industries and
energy-intensive transportation, and was associated with inefficient uses of
energy, two-thirds of the growth of energy consumption was determined by the
increase in per capita energy use. During the first phase of the Great Energy
Transformation (1900 to 1960), characterized by the dominance of coal, global
population growth doubled, industrialization began to spread geographically,
and the growth of real GDP per person accelerated. The result was a near
doubling in the growth of real GDP. The growth of energy consumption rose by
0.6 percentage points and was due entirely to the higher population growth.
This trend strengthened during the first part of the second phase of the Great
Energy Transition (1960 to 2000), dominated by oil and natural gas, and driven
by the acceleration in the growth of both population per capital real GDP.
Compared to the trend in real GDP, the growth of energy consumption was
moderated by a declining growth in per capita energy consumption. The second
part of this phase (2000 to 2022) is characterized by a deceleration in the
growth of the population, real GDP per person, and per capita energy
consumption. The latter was to a shift in the industrial structure in favor of
services relative to goods, and energy-saving technological improvements. Table II-8 sheds some
light on the historical relationship between demographic changes, technological
advances, and energy consumption. Population growth has a dual effect on
economic activity. On the supply side, it provides the main factor of production,
labor services. On the demand side, it generates the demand for the goods and
services produced. The strength of the demand side is affected by productivity growth, which raises the
purchasing power of persons. The dual effect of population growth operates also
on the energy side as individuals are involved in both the production (workers)
and the consumption of energy. Technological change affects also the supply and
demand of energy through the process of discovering new energy sources, finding
new and more efficient ways of extracting existing resources, and improving the
efficiency of energy-using devices. Table II-8 identifies two major trends in
these relationships. First, there was a fairly stable relationship between the
growth of the population and real GDP, especially after 1960. From 1960 to
2022, the growth of the former ranged between 42 and 48 percent of the
latter’s. Second, starting in 1960, energy consumption per capita embarked on a
declining trend, which accelerated after 2000. It seems that in the future, the
growth of energy consumption will be driven entirely by population dynamics.
Since policymakers can do little to influence population growth, future trends in energy consumption can be altered only by
changing the course of per capital energy consumption through technological
advancements and behavioral changes. This issue will be discussed later.
In this book I identified two major energy periods,
connected by a transition period: the first renewable energy age which lasted
into the early 1800s, and Great Energy Transformation characterized by the
dominance of fossil fuels. We can also separate human history in terms of
economic eras. The ascent of coal, which replaced the widespread use of
traditional biomass, led to an Industrial Revolution that transformed the world
economy from an overwhelming rural, agricultural base powered by man and beast,
into a more dynamic economic structure, still dominated by agriculture, but
powered increasingly by inanimate energy and with a geography that began to be
marked by greater urbanization and the tracks of a novel transportation mode:
the railway. The ascent of oil in the 20th century produced a
Transportation Revolution which reshaped the economy and society. The Digital
Revolution, arising from the invention of the transistor and the development of
integrated circuits in the late 20th century and fueled by electricity,
is transforming the economy and society at an unusually rapid rate. If has
given birth to Artificial Intelligence, a development that
will reshape society in manners which we cannot yet imagine. Table II-8. Summary Trends in Major Indicators:
Selected periods from 1820 to 2022 A. Growth
Rates Period Average Annual Percentage
Change Pop. Primary
GJ/P Real GDP P/GDP
EN/GDP GDP/P
Energy 1820-1900 0.49 1.50 0.99 1.32 0.37 1.13 0.82 1900-1960 1.09 2.10 1.00 2.44 0.45 0.86 1.26 1960-2000 1.78 2.63 0.82 3.68 0.48 0.71 1.86 2000-2022 1.18 1.51 0.33 2.80 0.42 0.54 1.61 1820-2022 0.96 1.94 0.90 2.23 0.43 0.87 1.26
B. Shares 1820 1900 1960 2000 2022 Fossil Fuel 8.2 55.7 79.0 81.4 79.4 Renewables
91.8 44.3 21.0 11.9
16.0 Source: Author’s Calculations Based on Malanima
(2022), Tables A-1 and A-4; IEA, World Energy Outlook 2002, Table 2.1;
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2023, Tables A.6 and B.1; Our World in Data,
“World GDP Over the Last Two Millennia.”
Notes 1Giuseppe Ruggeri (2022), Work and Leisure in
America: Altona, MB, Friesen Press. 2Walter Bottiny (1966), “Trends in Automobile Ownership
and Implications for Saturability,” www.onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/hrr/1966/106-001.pdf; The Geography of Transportation Systems, “Percentage
of Households by Number of Vehicles, 1960-2020. 3The Geography of Transport System,
“Evolution of the World Railway network, 1850-1913”. 4Boston
University, “World Electricity Generation since 1900,” Visualizing Energy,
Institute for Global Sustainability. 5Adventures in Geology �"
Karsten Eig (2017), “Where Was the World’s First Oil Well? Poland.” 6Jane McGrath, “Top 5 Innovations in Oil Drilling,” Hotstuffworks. 7Piotr Bejrowsky, “Ignacy Lucasieviz: Inventor of the
Kerosene Lamp and Founder of Oil Industry,” Polish History. 8Bonnie Maas Morrison (1992), “Ninety Years of U.S.
Household Energy History: A Quantitative Update,” Table 1. 9Odinn Melsted and Irene Pallua (2018), “The Historical
Transition from Coal to Hydrocarbons: Previous Explanations and the Need for an
Integrated Perspective,” Canadian Journal of History, Volume 53, No. 3, pp.
393-422, Figures 3 and 4. 10United States Census Bureau, 2022, “Selected Household
Characteristics,” www.data.census.gov/cedsci/table?tid/ACSDP5Y2020.DP)4. 11International Energy Agency (IEA), “Electricity
Generation by Fuel, 1971-2019”. 12 Odinn Melsted and Irene Pallua (2018), “The
Historical Transition from Coal to Hydrocarbons: Previous Explanations and the
Need for an Integrated Perspective,” Canadian Journal of History, Volume 53,
No. 3, pp. 393-422. 13The Physics Factbook, “Number of Cars”; US Office of
Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, “Fact #577: June 29, 2009 Changes in
Vehicles per Capita around the World. 14The Geography of Transport Systems, “Vehicle Use
Indicators, World, 1950-2019”. 15Justin Hayward (17 September 2020), “The Evolution of
the Airplane,” Simple Flying, www.simpleflying.com/the-evolution-of-the-airplane/. 16(The World Bank, “Air Transport, Passengers Carried,”
www.data.worldbank.org/indicators/IS.AIRPS902). 17IEA, 4 September 2020, “Oil Total Final Consumption by
Sector, 1971-2018.” References Paolo Malanima
(2022), “World Energy Consumption Database: 1820-2020,”
histecon.fas.harvard.edu/energyhistory/DATABASE%20World%20Energy%20Consumption(MALANIMA)pdf.
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peppino ruggeriHanwell, New Brunswick, CanadaAboutI am a retired academic. I enjoy gardening, writing poems and short stories and composing songs which may be found on my youtube channel Han Gardener or Spotify under peppino ruggeri. more..Writing
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